Saudi Pro League predictions
The Saudi Pro League table, home and away numbers, the strongest attacks and defences, and model estimates for the biggest meetings still to come. Updated automatically.
Free picks every day on Telegram. Our picks are posted on the Winner364 channel before kickoff, and every result stays public here.
Join the free channelKey facts
- 101 matches played this season, 3.06 goals per game
- Home wins 40% · draws 26% · away wins 35% of 101 games
- Both teams scored in 53% of matches · over 2.5 goals in 56%
- Leader: Al-Hilal with 30 points from 11 games, 2 ahead of Al-Nassr
- Most goals scored per game: Al-Hilal (2.9)
- Fewest goals conceded per game: Neom (0.8)
- Best at home: Al-Nassr, 18 points from 6 games
- Best away: Al-Qadsiah, 18 points from 6 games
Saudi Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 32-9 | +23 | 30 |
| 2 | Al-Nassr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28-11 | +17 | 28 |
| 3 | Al-Qadsiah | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 30-11 | +19 | 25 |
| 4 | Neom | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 19-9 | +10 | 25 |
| 5 | Al-Ittihad | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21-11 | +10 | 24 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 28-19 | +9 | 21 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17-18 | -1 | 16 |
| 8 | Al-Khaleej | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14-19 | -5 | 15 |
| 9 | Al-Shabab | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 20-15 | +5 | 14 |
| 10 | Al-Diriyah | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10-13 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Al-Kholood | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17-24 | -7 | 12 |
| 12 | Al-Fayha | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16-20 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Al-Hazem | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14-20 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | Al-Faisaly | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13-24 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Al-Riyadh | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9-24 | -15 | 9 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10-25 | -15 | 6 |
| 17 | Al-Taawoun | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 5-20 | -15 | 5 |
| 18 | Abha | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6-17 | -11 | 2 |
Computed from the results grid. Ties are split by goal difference, then goals scored.
Top six meetings still to play
Model estimates for the games between the current top six that are still to be played this season. Dates are not in our source yet; our pick for each one is posted on Telegram before kickoff.
| Match | Model 1 / X / 2 | Most likely score | Both teams to score | Over 2.5 goals | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Ahli vs Al-Hilal | 25% / 19% / 55% | 1-2 (9%) | 72% | 75% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Al-Ahli vs Al-Ittihad | 37% / 22% / 41% | 1-1 (9%) | 69% | 69% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Al-Ahli vs Al-Nassr | 31% / 21% / 49% | 1-2 (8%) | 73% | 74% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Al-Ahli vs Al-Qadsiah | 29% / 20% / 51% | 1-2 (8%) | 73% | 76% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Al-Ahli vs Neom | 35% / 24% / 41% | 1-1 (11%) | 63% | 61% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Al-Hilal vs Al-Nassr | 45% / 22% / 32% | 1-1 (10%) | 66% | 66% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Al-Hilal vs Al-Qadsiah | 44% / 22% / 34% | 1-1 (9%) | 68% | 67% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Al-Ittihad vs Al-Ahli | 43% / 22% / 35% | 1-1 (9%) | 69% | 69% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Al-Ittihad vs Al-Hilal | 28% / 23% / 49% | 1-1 (10%) | 61% | 61% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Al-Ittihad vs Al-Qadsiah | 32% / 23% / 45% | 1-1 (10%) | 63% | 62% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Al-Ittihad vs Neom | 36% / 27% / 37% | 1-1 (13%) | 51% | 46% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli | 50% / 20% / 29% | 2-1 (8%) | 72% | 75% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal | 34% / 22% / 44% | 1-1 (10%) | 67% | 66% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad | 45% / 24% / 32% | 1-1 (11%) | 62% | 60% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadsiah | 38% / 22% / 40% | 1-1 (9%) | 68% | 67% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Al-Qadsiah vs Al-Nassr | 41% / 22% / 36% | 1-1 (9%) | 68% | 67% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Al-Qadsiah vs Neom | 45% / 25% / 31% | 1-1 (12%) | 57% | 54% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Neom vs Al-Ahli | 43% / 23% / 34% | 1-1 (11%) | 63% | 61% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Neom vs Al-Hilal | 28% / 25% / 47% | 1-1 (12%) | 56% | 53% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Neom vs Al-Ittihad | 38% / 27% / 35% | 1-1 (13%) | 51% | 46% | Our pick on Telegram |
| Neom vs Al-Nassr | 33% / 25% / 41% | 1-1 (12%) | 56% | 52% | Our pick on Telegram |
How the model estimates work
Each club’s goals scored and conceded in this season’s league games, compared with the league average at home and away, give the expected goals; a Poisson distribution turns them into the chances above.
The model knows nothing about injuries, rotation, team news or motivation, and clubs outside our league files get no estimate. It is a starting point, not a pick.
Our Saudi Pro League picks
Our picks are posted on the free Telegram channel before kickoff. The model above is only the numbers; our tipsters add team news and the price.
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About these numbers
Source: the Saudi Pro League season pages on Wikipedia (open data, CC BY-SA), checked automatically. Past results do not predict future results.
21+ (18+ where the legal age is 18). Model estimates and statistics are information, not a promise of any result. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Problem gambling help: 1-800-GAMBLER.
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