Correct score predictions

How to read this page

For each match the model gives the single most likely final score with its chance, the next two most likely scores and the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win (1 / X / 2). Even the most likely score usually has a chance of only about 10% to 15%: correct score is a long-odds market. Kickoff times are in US Eastern Time (ET).

Next matches

No main-league fixtures are published for the next few days (for example during an international break). The model scores appear here automatically as soon as the next round is published. The full list is on the fixtures calendar.

The most common final scores this season

Across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1 this season (500 games):

• 2-1: 48 of 500 games (10%)
• 1-1: 46 of 500 games (9%)
• 1-0: 39 of 500 games (8%)
• 2-0: 37 of 500 games (7%)
• 1-2: 33 of 500 games (7%)
• 0-1: 32 of 500 games (6%)
• 0-0: 32 of 500 games (6%)
• 2-2: 31 of 500 games (6%)

How the model works

The model compares each team’s goals scored and conceded in its last league games with the league average at home and away, and turns the expected goals into the chance of every score with a Poisson distribution. It does not know injuries, line-ups or motivation, so it is a starting point, not a pick. Our own picks are posted on Telegram before kickoff; the results of every tip are in the public archive. More: accumulator of the day · soccer predictions today · bet calculator

Data: football-data.co.uk.

21+ (18+ where the legal age is 18). Model estimates and statistics are information, not a promise of any result. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Problem gambling help: 1-800-GAMBLER.