Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto prediction, odds & stats
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Match: Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto, Liga Portugal
Kickoff: Sunday, November 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (10:00 AM PT)
Market view: Vitoria Guimaraes 19% · draw 24% · Porto 57% (average odds 4.83 / 3.85 / 1.63, margin removed)
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Final score: Vitoria Guimaraes 1-2 Porto
Form (last 5): Vitoria Guimaraes LDLWD · Porto WWWWW
Get the tip on TelegramForm and goals
| Last league games | Vitoria Guimaraes | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5, oldest first) | LDLWD | WWWWW |
| Goals scored per game (last 10 / 10) | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 10 | 4 of 10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 3 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
| xG for / against per game | 1.50 / 0.93 | 2.21 / 0.80 |
Vitoria Guimaraes at home this season: played 5, won 2, drew 2, lost 1, goals 7-2. Porto away: played 5, won 5, drew 0, lost 0, goals 12-2.
What the numbers say
- Vitoria Guimaraes average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last 10 league games; Porto average 2.5 and 0.4 over their last 10.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Vitoria Guimaraes’s last 10 and in 4 of Porto’s last 10; over 2.5 goals landed in 3 and 6 of those games.
- Expected goals (xG) per game: Vitoria Guimaraes 1.50 for and 0.93 against; Porto 2.21 for and 0.80 against.
- In their last 4 meetings in our data, both teams scored 1 times and 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Model estimate
Our statistical model expects 0.8 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.9 for Porto. These are model estimates, not our pick.
| Outcome | Model estimate |
|---|---|
| Vitoria Guimaraes win | 14% |
| Draw | 21% |
| Porto win | 65% |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Most likely score | 0-1 (13%) |
| Next most likely scores | 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (10%) |
How the model works: each team’s goals scored and conceded in its last league games, compared with the league average at home and away, give the expected goals; a Poisson distribution turns them into the chances above. It knows nothing about injuries, team news or motivation.
More model pages: correct score predictions · accumulator of the day
Corners and cards
| Per game (last league games) | Vitoria Guimaraes | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won | 5.5 | 7.0 |
| Corners conceded | 3.8 | 3.2 |
| Total corners in their games | 9.3 | 10.2 |
| Cards received (yellow and red) | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| Total cards in their games | 5.3 | 2.7 |
Corners and cards of the last 10 league games of Vitoria Guimaraes and the last 10 of Porto.
Our pick for this match
Our pick for this match is on the free Telegram channel, posted before kickoff. The model above is only the numbers; our tipsters add team news and the price.
Get our pick on TelegramHead to head
- Jan 18, 2026: Guimaraes 0-1 Porto
- Aug 11, 2025: Porto 3-0 Guimaraes
- Feb 24, 2025: Porto 1-1 Guimaraes
- Sep 21, 2024: Guimaraes 0-3 Porto
Liga Portugal table
Vitoria Guimaraes are 13 of 18 with 9 points from 10 games; Porto are 1 of 18 with 30 points from 10 games.
About this preview
Results and match statistics: football-data.co.uk, league games only. Figures are before kickoff and update automatically. Tips are opinions, not guarantees. 21+ (18+ where the legal age is 18). Markets explained: both teams to score · over 2.5 goals · match winner. Full record: all results.
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