Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction, odds & stats
Kickoff 11:30 AM ET (8:30 AM PT). The Winner364 tip is posted on Telegram before kickoff; VIP members see every pick.
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Match: Manchester United vs Aston Villa, Premier League
Kickoff: Sunday, November 8, 2026, 11:30 AM ET (8:30 AM PT)
Market view: Manchester United 44% · draw 25% · Aston Villa 31% (average odds 2.13 / 3.68 / 3.07, margin removed)
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Final score: Manchester United 4-4 Aston Villa
Form (last 5): Manchester United DDDLL · Aston Villa WDWWD
Get the tip on TelegramForm and goals
| Last league games | Manchester United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5, oldest first) | DDDLL | WDWWD |
| Goals scored per game (last 10 / 10) | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 4 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 10 | 2 of 10 |
| xG for / against per game | 1.53 / 1.66 | 1.20 / 1.68 |
Manchester United at home this season: played 4, won 1, drew 1, lost 2, goals 6-7. Aston Villa away: played 4, won 2, drew 1, lost 1, goals 4-6.
What the numbers say
- Manchester United average 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last 10 league games; Aston Villa average 1.2 and 1.4 over their last 10.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Manchester United’s last 10 and in 6 of Aston Villa’s last 10; over 2.5 goals landed in 4 and 6 of those games.
- Expected goals (xG) per game: Manchester United 1.53 for and 1.66 against; Aston Villa 1.20 for and 1.68 against.
- In their last 4 meetings in our data, both teams scored 2 times and 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Model estimate
Our statistical model expects 1.9 goals for Manchester United and 1.3 for Aston Villa. These are model estimates, not our pick.
| Outcome | Model estimate |
|---|---|
| Manchester United win | 53% |
| Draw | 22% |
| Aston Villa win | 25% |
| Both teams to score | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10%) |
| Next most likely scores | 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%) |
How the model works: each team’s goals scored and conceded in its last league games, compared with the league average at home and away, give the expected goals; a Poisson distribution turns them into the chances above. It knows nothing about injuries, team news or motivation.
More model pages: correct score predictions · accumulator of the day
Corners and cards
| Per game (last league games) | Manchester United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won | 5.8 | 3.7 |
| Corners conceded | 3.7 | 5.3 |
| Total corners in their games | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| Cards received (yellow and red) | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Total cards in their games | 4.6 | 5.0 |
Corners and cards of the last 10 league games of Manchester United and the last 10 of Aston Villa.
Our pick for this match
Our pick for this match is on the free Telegram channel, posted before kickoff. The model above is only the numbers; our tipsters add team news and the price.
Get our pick on TelegramHead to head
- Mar 15, 2026: Man United 3-1 Aston Villa
- Dec 21, 2025: Aston Villa 2-1 Man United
- May 25, 2025: Man United 2-0 Aston Villa
- Oct 6, 2024: Aston Villa 0-0 Man United
Premier League table
Manchester United are 18 of 20 with 7 points from 9 games; Aston Villa are 12 of 20 with 12 points from 9 games.
About this preview
Results and match statistics: football-data.co.uk, league games only. Figures are before kickoff and update automatically. Tips are opinions, not guarantees. 21+ (18+ where the legal age is 18). Markets explained: both teams to score · over 2.5 goals · match winner. Full record: all results.
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