Leon vs Chivas Guadalajara prediction, odds & stats
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Match: Leon vs Chivas Guadalajara, Liga MX
Kickoff: Sunday, November 8, 2026, 9:10 PM ET (6:10 PM PT)
Market view: Leon 30% · draw 26% · Chivas Guadalajara 44% (average odds 3.04 / 3.49 / 2.10, margin removed)
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Final score: Leon 1-1 Chivas Guadalajara
Form (last 5): Leon DLWDL · Chivas Guadalajara DDWWW
Get the tip on TelegramForm and goals
| Last league games | Leon | Chivas Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5, oldest first) | DLWDL | DDWWW |
| Goals scored per game (last 10 / 10) | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Both teams scored | 8 of 10 | 5 of 10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 4 of 10 | 4 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 10 | 4 of 10 |
Leon at home this season: played 7, won 4, drew 1, lost 2, goals 13-10. Chivas Guadalajara away: played 7, won 3, drew 4, lost 0, goals 10-5.
What the numbers say
- Leon average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over their last 10 league games; Chivas Guadalajara average 1.7 and 0.9 over their last 10.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Leon’s last 10 and in 5 of Chivas Guadalajara’s last 10; over 2.5 goals landed in 4 and 4 of those games.
- In their last 4 meetings in our data, both teams scored 1 times and 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Model estimate
Our statistical model expects 1.3 goals for Leon and 1.5 for Chivas Guadalajara. These are model estimates, not our pick.
| Outcome | Model estimate |
|---|---|
| Leon win | 34% |
| Draw | 25% |
| Chivas Guadalajara win | 41% |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12%) |
| Next most likely scores | 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%) |
How the model works: each team’s goals scored and conceded in its last league games, compared with the league average at home and away, give the expected goals; a Poisson distribution turns them into the chances above. It knows nothing about injuries, team news or motivation.
More model pages: correct score predictions · accumulator of the day
Our pick for this match
Our pick for this match is on the free Telegram channel, posted before kickoff. The model above is only the numbers; our tipsters add team news and the price.
Get our pick on TelegramHead to head
- Mar 19, 2026: Guadalajara Chivas 5-0 Club Leon
- Jul 20, 2025: Club Leon 1-0 Guadalajara Chivas
- Jan 29, 2025: Club Leon 2-1 Guadalajara Chivas
- Sep 19, 2024: Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 Club Leon
Liga MX table
Leon are 9 of 18 with 22 points from 15 games; Chivas Guadalajara are 3 of 18 with 29 points from 15 games.
About this preview
Results and match statistics: football-data.co.uk, league games only. Figures are before kickoff and update automatically. Tips are opinions, not guarantees. 21+ (18+ where the legal age is 18). Markets explained: both teams to score · over 2.5 goals · match winner. Full record: all results.
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