Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 prediction, odds & stats
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Match: Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04, Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sunday, November 8, 2026, 1:30 PM ET (10:30 AM PT)
Market view: Hoffenheim 59% · draw 22% · Schalke 04 19% (average odds 1.59 / 4.33 / 4.81, margin removed)
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Final score: Hoffenheim 2-1 Schalke 04
Form (last 5): Hoffenheim LLWWL · Schalke 04 DLLDL
Get the tip on TelegramForm and goals
| Last league games | Hoffenheim | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5, oldest first) | LLWWL | DLLDL |
| Goals scored per game (last 10 / 8) | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 10 | 2 of 8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 8 of 10 | 3 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 10 | 3 of 8 |
| xG for / against per game | 1.89 / 1.31 | 0.89 / 2.05 |
Hoffenheim at home this season: played 4, won 2, drew 0, lost 2, goals 9-7. Schalke 04 away: played 4, won 1, drew 1, lost 2, goals 4-6.
What the numbers say
- Hoffenheim average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last 10 league games; Schalke 04 average 0.5 and 1.1 over their last 8.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Hoffenheim’s last 10 and in 2 of Schalke 04’s last 8; over 2.5 goals landed in 8 and 3 of those games.
- Expected goals (xG) per game: Hoffenheim 1.89 for and 1.31 against; Schalke 04 0.89 for and 2.05 against.
Model estimate
Our statistical model expects 1.7 goals for Hoffenheim and 1.0 for Schalke 04. These are model estimates, not our pick.
| Outcome | Model estimate |
|---|---|
| Hoffenheim win | 52% |
| Draw | 24% |
| Schalke 04 win | 23% |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12%) |
| Next most likely scores | 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%) |
How the model works: each team’s goals scored and conceded in its last league games, compared with the league average at home and away, give the expected goals; a Poisson distribution turns them into the chances above. It knows nothing about injuries, team news or motivation.
More model pages: correct score predictions · accumulator of the day
Corners and cards
| Per game (last league games) | Hoffenheim | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won | 6.6 | 3.2 |
| Corners conceded | 4.4 | 6.4 |
| Total corners in their games | 11.0 | 9.6 |
| Cards received (yellow and red) | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Total cards in their games | 4.4 | 3.1 |
Corners and cards of the last 10 league games of Hoffenheim and the last 8 of Schalke 04.
Our pick for this match
Our pick for this match is on the free Telegram channel, posted before kickoff. The model above is only the numbers; our tipsters add team news and the price.
Get our pick on TelegramBundesliga table
Hoffenheim are 14 of 18 with 9 points from 8 games; Schalke 04 are 17 of 18 with 6 points from 8 games.
About this preview
Results and match statistics: football-data.co.uk, league games only. Figures are before kickoff and update automatically. Tips are opinions, not guarantees. 21+ (18+ where the legal age is 18). Markets explained: both teams to score · over 2.5 goals · match winner. Full record: all results.
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