Freiburg vs Union Berlin prediction, odds & stats
Kickoff 11:30 AM ET (8:30 AM PT). The Winner364 tip is posted on Telegram before kickoff; VIP members see every pick.
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Match: Freiburg vs Union Berlin, Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sunday, November 8, 2026, 11:30 AM ET (8:30 AM PT)
Market view: Freiburg 63% · draw 21% · Union Berlin 16% (average odds 1.49 / 4.39 / 5.89, margin removed)
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Final score: Freiburg 2-0 Union Berlin
Form (last 5): Freiburg DWLLW · Union Berlin LWDDD
Get the tip on TelegramForm and goals
| Last league games | Freiburg | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5, oldest first) | DWLLW | LWDDD |
| Goals scored per game (last 10 / 10) | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Both teams scored | 8 of 10 | 5 of 10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 9 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 10 | 3 of 10 |
| xG for / against per game | 1.68 / 1.21 | 1.05 / 1.91 |
Freiburg at home this season: played 4, won 3, drew 0, lost 1, goals 12-5. Union Berlin away: played 3, won 0, drew 1, lost 2, goals 1-12.
What the numbers say
- Freiburg average 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over their last 10 league games; Union Berlin average 1.4 and 2.0 over their last 10.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Freiburg’s last 10 and in 5 of Union Berlin’s last 10; over 2.5 goals landed in 9 and 6 of those games.
- Expected goals (xG) per game: Freiburg 1.68 for and 1.21 against; Union Berlin 1.05 for and 1.91 against.
- In their last 4 meetings in our data, both teams scored 1 times and 1 had over 2.5 goals.
Model estimate
Our statistical model expects 2.5 goals for Freiburg and 1.0 for Union Berlin. These are model estimates, not our pick.
| Outcome | Model estimate |
|---|---|
| Freiburg win | 70% |
| Draw | 17% |
| Union Berlin win | 13% |
| Both teams to score | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% |
| Most likely score | 2-0 (9%) |
| Next most likely scores | 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (8%) |
How the model works: each team’s goals scored and conceded in its last league games, compared with the league average at home and away, give the expected goals; a Poisson distribution turns them into the chances above. It knows nothing about injuries, team news or motivation.
More model pages: correct score predictions · accumulator of the day
Corners and cards
| Per game (last league games) | Freiburg | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| Corners conceded | 3.2 | 6.2 |
| Total corners in their games | 7.5 | 10.1 |
| Cards received (yellow and red) | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| Total cards in their games | 3.4 | 4.6 |
Corners and cards of the last 10 league games of Freiburg and the last 10 of Union Berlin.
Our pick for this match
Our pick for this match is on the free Telegram channel, posted before kickoff. The model above is only the numbers; our tipsters add team news and the price.
Get our pick on TelegramHead to head
- Mar 15, 2026: Freiburg 0-1 Union Berlin
- Nov 1, 2025: Union Berlin 0-0 Freiburg
- Mar 30, 2025: Freiburg 1-2 Union Berlin
- Nov 8, 2024: Union Berlin 0-0 Freiburg
Bundesliga table
Freiburg are 4 of 18 with 16 points from 8 games; Union Berlin are 16 of 18 with 7 points from 8 games.
About this preview
Results and match statistics: football-data.co.uk, league games only. Figures are before kickoff and update automatically. Tips are opinions, not guarantees. 21+ (18+ where the legal age is 18). Markets explained: both teams to score · over 2.5 goals · match winner. Full record: all results.
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