Estrela vs Benfica prediction, odds & stats
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Match: Estrela vs Benfica, Liga Portugal
Kickoff: Sunday, November 8, 2026, 3:30 PM ET (12:30 PM PT)
Market view: Estrela 10% · draw 16% · Benfica 75% (average odds 9.75 / 5.99 / 1.24, margin removed)
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Final score: Estrela 2-3 Benfica
Form (last 5): Estrela DLLLL · Benfica WLWWW
Get the tip on TelegramForm and goals
| Last league games | Estrela | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5, oldest first) | DLLLL | WLWWW |
| Goals scored per game (last 10 / 10) | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 10 | 5 of 10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 7 of 10 | 8 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 10 | 5 of 10 |
| xG for / against per game | 1.24 / 1.34 | 2.24 / 0.71 |
Estrela at home this season: played 5, won 1, drew 2, lost 2, goals 6-9. Benfica away: played 5, won 4, drew 0, lost 1, goals 17-4.
What the numbers say
- Estrela average 1.5 goals scored and 1.9 conceded over their last 10 league games; Benfica average 2.7 and 0.8 over their last 10.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Estrela’s last 10 and in 5 of Benfica’s last 10; over 2.5 goals landed in 7 and 8 of those games.
- Expected goals (xG) per game: Estrela 1.24 for and 1.34 against; Benfica 2.24 for and 0.71 against.
- In their last 4 meetings in our data, both teams scored 1 times and 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Model estimate
Our statistical model expects 1.0 goals for Estrela and 2.6 for Benfica. These are model estimates, not our pick.
| Outcome | Model estimate |
|---|---|
| Estrela win | 13% |
| Draw | 16% |
| Benfica win | 71% |
| Both teams to score | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% |
| Most likely score | 1-2 (9%) |
| Next most likely scores | 0-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%) |
How the model works: each team’s goals scored and conceded in its last league games, compared with the league average at home and away, give the expected goals; a Poisson distribution turns them into the chances above. It knows nothing about injuries, team news or motivation.
More model pages: correct score predictions · accumulator of the day
Corners and cards
| Per game (last league games) | Estrela | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won | 4.4 | 7.3 |
| Corners conceded | 4.3 | 2.5 |
| Total corners in their games | 8.7 | 9.8 |
| Cards received (yellow and red) | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Total cards in their games | 4.3 | 5.5 |
Corners and cards of the last 10 league games of Estrela and the last 10 of Benfica.
Our pick for this match
Our pick for this match is on the free Telegram channel, posted before kickoff. The model above is only the numbers; our tipsters add team news and the price.
Get our pick on TelegramHead to head
- Jan 25, 2026: Benfica 4-0 Estrela
- Aug 16, 2025: Estrela 0-1 Benfica
- Feb 2, 2025: Estrela 2-3 Benfica
- Aug 24, 2024: Benfica 1-0 Estrela
Liga Portugal table
Estrela are 12 of 18 with 10 points from 10 games; Benfica are 2 of 18 with 25 points from 10 games.
About this preview
Results and match statistics: football-data.co.uk, league games only. Figures are before kickoff and update automatically. Tips are opinions, not guarantees. 21+ (18+ where the legal age is 18). Markets explained: both teams to score · over 2.5 goals · match winner. Full record: all results.
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