Estoril vs Maritimo prediction, odds & stats
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Match: Estoril vs Maritimo, Liga Portugal
Kickoff: Sunday, November 8, 2026, 10:30 AM ET (7:30 AM PT)
Market view: Estoril 45% · draw 27% · Maritimo 28% (average odds 2.04 / 3.42 / 3.35, margin removed)
Winner364 pick: our picks are posted on Telegram before kickoff. Get our pick on Telegram
Form (last 5): Estoril LLLLL · Maritimo LDLLL
Get the tip on TelegramForm and goals
| Last league games | Estoril | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5, oldest first) | LLLLL | LDLLL |
| Goals scored per game (last 10 / 10) | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 5 of 10 | 7 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 10 | 1 of 10 |
| xG for / against per game | 1.01 / 1.65 | 0.94 / 1.40 |
Estoril at home this season: played 5, won 0, drew 2, lost 3, goals 3-8. Maritimo away: played 5, won 1, drew 1, lost 3, goals 5-12.
What the numbers say
- Estoril average 0.5 goals scored and 1.9 conceded over their last 10 league games; Maritimo average 0.9 and 2.1 over their last 10.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Estoril’s last 10 and in 6 of Maritimo’s last 10; over 2.5 goals landed in 5 and 7 of those games.
- Expected goals (xG) per game: Estoril 1.01 for and 1.65 against; Maritimo 0.94 for and 1.40 against.
Model estimate
Our statistical model expects 1.1 goals for Estoril and 1.4 for Maritimo. These are model estimates, not our pick.
| Outcome | Model estimate |
|---|---|
| Estoril win | 30% |
| Draw | 26% |
| Maritimo win | 43% |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13%) |
| Next most likely scores | 0-1 (11%), 1-0 (9%) |
How the model works: each team’s goals scored and conceded in its last league games, compared with the league average at home and away, give the expected goals; a Poisson distribution turns them into the chances above. It knows nothing about injuries, team news or motivation.
More model pages: correct score predictions · accumulator of the day
Corners and cards
| Per game (last league games) | Estoril | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won | 4.5 | 3.3 |
| Corners conceded | 4.8 | 4.4 |
| Total corners in their games | 9.3 | 7.7 |
| Cards received (yellow and red) | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Total cards in their games | 3.7 | 4.5 |
Corners and cards of the last 10 league games of Estoril and the last 10 of Maritimo.
Our pick for this match
Our pick for this match is on the free Telegram channel, posted before kickoff. The model above is only the numbers; our tipsters add team news and the price.
Get our pick on TelegramLiga Portugal table
Estoril are 18 of 18 with 2 points from 10 games; Maritimo are 14 of 18 with 8 points from 10 games.
About this preview
Results and match statistics: football-data.co.uk, league games only. Figures are before kickoff and update automatically. Tips are opinions, not guarantees. 21+ (18+ where the legal age is 18). Markets explained: both teams to score · over 2.5 goals · match winner. Full record: all results.
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