What is implied probability in soccer betting?
Implied probability is the chance of an outcome suggested by its odds. For decimal odds it equals 1 divided by the odds, so 2.00 implies 50% and 4.00 implies 25%.
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For American odds, a plus price converts as 100 divided by the odds plus 100, so +200 is 33.3%. A minus price converts as the odds divided by the odds plus 100, so -200 is 66.7%. These figures include the bookmaker margin, so they are not true probabilities.
For example, a team at 2.40 (+140) has an implied probability of about 41.7%. If your own estimate, based on form, injuries and expected goals, puts its chance at 46%, the price may be worth a closer look. If you estimate 38%, the price is likely too short.
Implied probability is the bridge between odds and judgment. The common mistake is treating it as a forecast, when it is really a price. Adding the implied probabilities of every outcome in a market shows the margin built into it.
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Related terms
Decimal odds · American odds · Bookmaker margin (vig or juice) · Value bet · Closing line value (CLV)
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