Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen prediction, odds & stats
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Match: Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen, Eredivisie
Kickoff: Sunday, November 8, 2026, 2:00 PM ET (11:00 AM PT)
Market view: Utrecht 39% · draw 25% · NEC Nijmegen 36% (average odds 2.38 / 3.73 / 2.57, margin removed)
Winner364 pick: our picks are posted on Telegram before kickoff. Get our pick on Telegram
Final score: Utrecht 2-3 NEC Nijmegen
Form (last 5): Utrecht LWWDL · NEC Nijmegen DDDDL
Get the tip on TelegramForm and goals
| Last league games | Utrecht | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5, oldest first) | LWWDL | DDDDL |
| Goals scored per game (last 10 / 10) | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| Both teams scored | 9 of 10 | 8 of 10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 9 of 10 | 7 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 10 | 0 of 10 |
| xG for / against per game | 1.30 / 1.87 | 1.62 / 1.75 |
Utrecht at home this season: played 5, won 1, drew 2, lost 2, goals 9-15. NEC Nijmegen away: played 5, won 2, drew 1, lost 2, goals 8-7.
What the numbers say
- Utrecht average 1.8 goals scored and 2.9 conceded over their last 10 league games; NEC Nijmegen average 1.6 and 1.7 over their last 10.
- Both teams scored in 9 of Utrecht’s last 10 and in 8 of NEC Nijmegen’s last 10; over 2.5 goals landed in 9 and 7 of those games.
- Expected goals (xG) per game: Utrecht 1.30 for and 1.87 against; NEC Nijmegen 1.62 for and 1.75 against.
- In their last 4 meetings in our data, both teams scored 2 times and 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Model estimate
Our statistical model expects 1.6 goals for Utrecht and 2.0 for NEC Nijmegen. These are model estimates, not our pick.
| Outcome | Model estimate |
|---|---|
| Utrecht win | 31% |
| Draw | 22% |
| NEC Nijmegen win | 47% |
| Both teams to score | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (9%) |
| Next most likely scores | 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%) |
How the model works: each team’s goals scored and conceded in its last league games, compared with the league average at home and away, give the expected goals; a Poisson distribution turns them into the chances above. It knows nothing about injuries, team news or motivation.
More model pages: correct score predictions · accumulator of the day
Corners and cards
| Per game (last league games) | Utrecht | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won | 4.9 | 5.7 |
| Corners conceded | 5.6 | 3.4 |
| Total corners in their games | 10.5 | 9.1 |
| Cards received (yellow and red) | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Total cards in their games | 3.1 | 3.5 |
Corners and cards of the last 10 league games of Utrecht and the last 10 of NEC Nijmegen.
Our pick for this match
Our pick for this match is on the free Telegram channel, posted before kickoff. The model above is only the numbers; our tipsters add team news and the price.
Get our pick on TelegramHead to head
- Feb 11, 2026: Nijmegen 1-3 Utrecht
- Nov 2, 2025: Utrecht 1-0 Nijmegen
- Mar 15, 2025: Utrecht 0-1 Nijmegen
- Nov 24, 2024: Nijmegen 1-2 Utrecht
Eredivisie table
Utrecht are 13 of 18 with 12 points from 11 games; NEC Nijmegen are 14 of 18 with 11 points from 11 games.
About this preview
Results and match statistics: football-data.co.uk, league games only. Figures are before kickoff and update automatically. Tips are opinions, not guarantees. 21+ (18+ where the legal age is 18). Markets explained: both teams to score · over 2.5 goals · match winner. Full record: all results.
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