Twente vs Ajax prediction, odds & stats
Kickoff 8:30 AM ET (5:30 AM PT). The Winner364 tip is posted on Telegram before kickoff; VIP members see every pick.
Free picks every day on Telegram. Our picks are posted on the Winner364 channel before kickoff, and every result stays public here.
Join the free channelQuick answer
Match: Twente vs Ajax, Eredivisie
Kickoff: Sunday, November 8, 2026, 8:30 AM ET (5:30 AM PT)
Market view: Twente 42% · draw 24% · Ajax 34% (average odds 2.23 / 3.80 / 2.75, margin removed)
Winner364 pick: our picks are posted on Telegram before kickoff. Get our pick on Telegram
Final score: Twente 2-2 Ajax
Form (last 5): Twente WDLWW · Ajax DDWWW
Get the tip on TelegramForm and goals
| Last league games | Twente | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5, oldest first) | WDLWW | DDWWW |
| Goals scored per game (last 10 / 10) | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 10 | 8 of 10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 6 of 10 | 8 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 10 | 2 of 10 |
| xG for / against per game | 2.47 / 0.85 | 2.33 / 1.41 |
Twente at home this season: played 5, won 4, drew 0, lost 1, goals 10-5. Ajax away: played 5, won 5, drew 0, lost 0, goals 18-4.
What the numbers say
- Twente average 2.8 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over their last 10 league games; Ajax average 2.8 and 1.3 over their last 10.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Twente’s last 10 and in 8 of Ajax’s last 10; over 2.5 goals landed in 6 and 8 of those games.
- Expected goals (xG) per game: Twente 2.47 for and 0.85 against; Ajax 2.33 for and 1.41 against.
- In their last 4 meetings in our data, both teams scored 3 times and 3 had over 2.5 goals.
Model estimate
Our statistical model expects 1.4 goals for Twente and 1.7 for Ajax. These are model estimates, not our pick.
| Outcome | Model estimate |
|---|---|
| Twente win | 31% |
| Draw | 23% |
| Ajax win | 45% |
| Both teams to score | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10%) |
| Next most likely scores | 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (7%) |
How the model works: each team’s goals scored and conceded in its last league games, compared with the league average at home and away, give the expected goals; a Poisson distribution turns them into the chances above. It knows nothing about injuries, team news or motivation.
More model pages: correct score predictions · accumulator of the day
Corners and cards
| Per game (last league games) | Twente | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won | 7.0 | 5.8 |
| Corners conceded | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| Total corners in their games | 10.4 | 9.5 |
| Cards received (yellow and red) | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Total cards in their games | 2.9 | 3.2 |
Corners and cards of the last 10 league games of Twente and the last 10 of Ajax.
Our pick for this match
Our pick for this match is on the free Telegram channel, posted before kickoff. The model above is only the numbers; our tipsters add team news and the price.
Get our pick on TelegramHead to head
- Apr 4, 2026: Ajax 1-2 Twente
- Oct 26, 2025: Twente 2-3 Ajax
- May 18, 2025: Ajax 2-0 Twente
- Nov 10, 2024: Twente 2-2 Ajax
Eredivisie table
Twente are 4 of 18 with 23 points from 11 games; Ajax are 2 of 18 with 24 points from 11 games.
About this preview
Results and match statistics: football-data.co.uk, league games only. Figures are before kickoff and update automatically. Tips are opinions, not guarantees. 21+ (18+ where the legal age is 18). Markets explained: both teams to score · over 2.5 goals · match winner. Full record: all results.
Ready for the tips before kickoff?
Free picks every day on our Telegram channel. VIP members get the full daily slate — soccer, basketball, red tips and a daily single pick.
Winner364 in brief (updated Nov 11, 2026): free soccer and basketball tips with the market and odds on every pick, posted before kickoff on the Winner364 Telegram channel (t.me/winner364). Public record: 425 tips in the archive since Aug 21, 2026; 235 confirmed wins, 99 confirmed losses and 91 still unconfirmed. Latest wins: Inter W - Manchester City W (Both to score, odds 1.60) and AS Roma W - Servette Geneve FC W (Both to score, odds 1.70). VIP: every pick, £99 a month or £549 one time. 21+. Full record: winner364.com/results/.
Football guides and transparency
Football guides · Methodology · Sources and corrections · About Winner364