AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction, odds & stats
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Match: AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen, Eredivisie
Kickoff: Sunday, November 8, 2026, 10:45 AM ET (7:45 AM PT)
Market view: AZ Alkmaar 61% · draw 21% · Groningen 18% (average odds 1.52 / 4.52 / 5.17, margin removed)
Winner364 pick: our picks are posted on Telegram before kickoff. Get our pick on Telegram
Final score: AZ Alkmaar 4-3 Groningen
Form (last 5): AZ Alkmaar WLDLL · Groningen WWLDL
Get the tip on TelegramForm and goals
| Last league games | AZ Alkmaar | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5, oldest first) | WLDLL | WWLDL |
| Goals scored per game (last 10 / 10) | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 10 | 9 of 10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 4 of 10 | 9 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 10 | 1 of 10 |
| xG for / against per game | 2.02 / 1.20 | 1.76 / 2.00 |
AZ Alkmaar at home this season: played 5, won 3, drew 1, lost 1, goals 9-5. Groningen away: played 5, won 2, drew 2, lost 1, goals 13-10.
What the numbers say
- AZ Alkmaar average 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over their last 10 league games; Groningen average 2.4 and 2.3 over their last 10.
- Both teams scored in 5 of AZ Alkmaar’s last 10 and in 9 of Groningen’s last 10; over 2.5 goals landed in 4 and 9 of those games.
- Expected goals (xG) per game: AZ Alkmaar 2.02 for and 1.20 against; Groningen 1.76 for and 2.00 against.
- In their last 4 meetings in our data, both teams scored 1 times and 3 had over 2.5 goals.
Model estimate
Our statistical model expects 1.7 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.6 for Groningen. These are model estimates, not our pick.
| Outcome | Model estimate |
|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar win | 41% |
| Draw | 23% |
| Groningen win | 36% |
| Both teams to score | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10%) |
| Next most likely scores | 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%) |
How the model works: each team’s goals scored and conceded in its last league games, compared with the league average at home and away, give the expected goals; a Poisson distribution turns them into the chances above. It knows nothing about injuries, team news or motivation.
More model pages: correct score predictions · accumulator of the day
Every meeting of the two teams: head to head
Corners and cards
| Per game (last league games) | AZ Alkmaar | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Corners won | 7.4 | 4.3 |
| Corners conceded | 3.3 | 5.8 |
| Total corners in their games | 10.7 | 10.1 |
| Cards received (yellow and red) | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Total cards in their games | 3.4 | 2.7 |
Corners and cards of the last 10 league games of AZ Alkmaar and the last 10 of Groningen.
Our pick for this match
Our pick for this match is on the free Telegram channel, posted before kickoff. The model above is only the numbers; our tipsters add team news and the price.
Get our pick on TelegramHead to head
- Mar 22, 2026: Groningen 3-0 AZ Alkmaar
- Aug 10, 2025: AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Groningen
- May 11, 2025: AZ Alkmaar 3-0 Groningen
- Aug 25, 2024: Groningen 0-0 AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie table
AZ Alkmaar are 5 of 18 with 20 points from 11 games; Groningen are 9 of 18 with 15 points from 11 games.
About this preview
Results and match statistics: football-data.co.uk, league games only. Figures are before kickoff and update automatically. Tips are opinions, not guarantees. 21+ (18+ where the legal age is 18). Markets explained: both teams to score · over 2.5 goals · match winner. Full record: all results.
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