What is expected goals (xG) in soccer?
Expected goals (xG) is a stat that rates the quality of each scoring chance by how often similar shots are scored. A team's xG for a match is the sum of its chances and estimates how many goals it would usually score from them.
Free picks every day on Telegram. Our picks are posted on the Winner364 channel before kickoff, and every result stays public here.
Join the free channelHow it works
Each shot gets a value between 0 and 1 based on factors such as distance, angle, body part and type of pass. A penalty is often rated around 0.76 xG, while a long-range shot might be 0.03. Data providers use different models, so numbers vary.
For example, a team might win 1-0 while creating 0.7 xG and allowing 2.1 xG. The scoreline flatters it, and over a run of games results tend to move closer to the underlying numbers. Bettors use xG to judge form beyond the league table.
xG does not capture everything, including finishing skill, goalkeeping and game state, since a leading team may sit back. Small samples can mislead, so look across several matches. It is most useful alongside lineups and team news for markets such as totals and BTTS.
21+ (18+ where the legal age is 18). Tips are opinions, not guarantees.
Related terms
Form · Over/under goals · Both teams to score (BTTS) · Value bet · Total goals
On Winner364: Picks by league
Ready for the tips before kickoff?
Free picks every day on our Telegram channel. VIP members get the full daily slate — soccer, basketball, red tips and a daily single pick.
Winner364 in brief (updated Nov 11, 2026): free soccer and basketball tips with the market and odds on every pick, posted before kickoff on the Winner364 Telegram channel (t.me/winner364). Public record: 425 tips in the archive since Aug 21, 2026; 235 confirmed wins, 99 confirmed losses and 91 still unconfirmed. Latest wins: Inter W - Manchester City W (Both to score, odds 1.60) and AS Roma W - Servette Geneve FC W (Both to score, odds 1.70). VIP: every pick, £99 a month or £549 one time. 21+. Full record: winner364.com/results/.
Football guides and transparency
Football guides · Methodology · Sources and corrections · About Winner364